Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect S to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect S to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 01 Jul 01:30 if the released value is > A$10B. A price movement of 800 pips is expected.
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
|03 Jun 01:30|
|04 Mar 00:30|
|04 Feb 00:30|
|03 Dec 00:30|
|05 Nov 00:30|
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).