We expect S to trend upwards today.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect S to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect S to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 01 Jul 01:30 if the released value is > A$10B. A price movement of 800 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Jun 01:30
04 Mar 00:30
04 Feb 00:30
03 Dec 00:30
05 Nov 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

leave a reply