Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect FV to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect FV to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 15 Mar 23:50 if the released value is > ¥-112.6B. A price movement of 30 pips is expected.
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
19 Jan 23:50 |
19 May 23:50 |
18 Apr 23:50 |
16 Feb 23:50 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
