Based on the last 12 RBA Interest Rate Decision events in Australia, we expect a 837 pip movement on ES within 2 hours following the event release at 2023-12-05 03:30. We expect ES to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 2023-12-05 03:30 if the released value is = 4.35%
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
07 Nov 03:30 |
03 Oct 03:30 |
05 Sep 04:30 |
04 Apr 04:30 |
07 Feb 03:30 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
