Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect ES to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect ES to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 20 Jul 23:50 if the released value is < ¥460B. A price movement of 2,025 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
15 Jun 23:50 |
16 Mar 23:50 |
15 Dec 23:50 |
19 Jul 23:50 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
