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We expect BO to trend downwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect a $453 movement on BO within 48 hours following the event release at 2022-08-16 23:50. We expect BO to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 2022-08-16 23:50 if the released value is < ¥-1405B Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Jun 23:50
19 Apr 23:50
15 Dec 23:50
15 Sep 23:50
20 Jul 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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