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We expect a 5,735 pip movement on SP within 48 hours following the event release.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect a 5,735 pip movement on SP within 48 hours following the event release at 13 May 06:00 UTC. We expect SP to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 13 May 06:00 UTC if the released value is < £-1.7B Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Apr 06:00
10 Dec 09:30
11 Nov 09:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect ES to trend upwards right now.

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We expect SP to trend upwards with a 75% chance.

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