There is a 75% chance of NZDUSD trending downwards

Based on past United States Fed Interest Rate Decision news events there is a 75% chance of NZDUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is = 0.25%. A price movement of 112 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 Jul 18:00
10 Jun 18:00
29 Apr 18:00
29 Jan 19:00
11 Dec 19:00
18 Sep 18:00
31 Jul 18:00
20 Mar 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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