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There is a 66.67% chance of EMD trending downwards

Based on past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 66.67% chance of EMD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < -12%. A price movement of 3,875 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Apr 12:30
17 Mar 12:30
13 Dec 13:30
14 Jun 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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