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There is a 66.67% chance of DX trending downwards

Based on past Euro Area Industrial Production YoY news events there is a 66.67% chance of DX trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 4.1%. A price movement of 6 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Oct 09:00
15 Sep 09:00
14 Jun 09:00
14 Dec 10:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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After experiencing a 8.43% bullish move in the space of 38 days, nobody knows where EUSTX50 is headed.

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We expect DX to trend downwards today with a 66.67% chance.

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