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We expect ZB to trend downwards right now.

Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect ZB to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. This may happen because the released value is = 0%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

30 Apr 11:45
12 Mar 12:45
12 Dec 12:45
24 Oct 11:45
12 Sep 11:45
25 Jul 11:45
06 Jun 11:45
10 Apr 11:45
24 Jan 12:45
13 Dec 12:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $0 movement on 6M within 4 hours following the release of Continuing Jobless Claims.

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