Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY Prel events in Germany, we expect NIY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect NIY to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 06 Jan 13:00 if the released value is = -0.3%. A price movement of 26,750 pips is expected.
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
28 May 12:00 |
30 Mar 12:00 |
30 Jan 13:00 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
