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We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards today with a 80% chance.

We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 0.4%. A price movement of 68 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

25 Jul 06:00
20 Jun 06:00
17 Jan 07:00
22 Nov 07:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a 83 pip movement on S within 12 hours following the event release.

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