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We expect EURUSD to trend upwards today with a 80% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect a $660 movement on EURUSD within 48 hours following the event release at 2025-09-16 23:50. We expect EURUSD to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 2025-09-16 23:50 if the released value is > ¥-513.6B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Jun 23:50
16 Apr 23:50
22 Jan 23:50
17 Sep 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $240788 movement on EMD within 48 hours following the event release at 2025-09-16 23:50.

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