Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in United States, we could expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 11 May 12:30 if the released value is > 8.1%. A price movement of 75 pips could result.
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
12 Apr 12:30 |
10 Feb 13:30 |
10 Nov 13:30 |
13 Jul 12:30 |
10 Jun 12:30 |
12 May 12:30 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
