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We expect ES to trend upwards today with a 85.71% chance.

We expect ES to trend upwards later today. Based on these past Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index news events there is a 85.71% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 13. A price movement of 1,237 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

30 Jun 23:50
30 Sep 23:50
30 Jun 23:50
12 Dec 23:50
31 Mar 23:50
30 Sep 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $0 movement on BP within 12 hours following the event release at 30 Sep 23:30.

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