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We expect ES to trend upwards today with a 80% chance.

Based on past United States Durable Goods Orders MoM news events there is a 80% chance of ES trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 0.6%. A price movement of 2262 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

25 May 12:30
24 Mar 12:30
24 Nov 13:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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