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We expect ES to trend upwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect ES to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect ES to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 2025-01-22 23:50 if the released value is > ¥-55B. A price movement of 31 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Dec 23:50
17 Sep 23:50
17 Jul 23:50
20 Mar 23:50
23 Jan 23:50
19 Dec 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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