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There is a 71.43% chance of USDCAD trending upwards

We expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past Germany Balance of Trade news events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < €17.3B. A price movement of 90 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

06 Jun 06:00
10 Mar 07:00
13 Dec 07:00
07 Nov 07:00
06 Sep 06:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect EMD to trend downwards today.

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We expect a $134142 movement on ES within 4 hours following the event release at 2025-08-07 06:00.

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