Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect ZB to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect ZB to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 18 Aug 23:50 if the released value is > ¥-77.6B. A price movement of 226 pips is expected.
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
16 Jun 23:50 |
17 Mar 23:50 |
18 Feb 23:50 |
17 Sep 23:50 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
