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We expect ZB to trend downwards today with a 66.67% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect a $235 movement on ZB within 48 hours following the event release at 2025-08-19 23:50. We expect ZB to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 2025-08-19 23:50 if the released value is > ¥196.2B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Apr 23:50
17 Dec 23:50
17 Sep 23:50
17 Jul 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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