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We expect USDCHF to trend upwards today.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we could expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 03 Jun 06:00 if the released value is > €7.3B. A price movement of 14 pips could result.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 May 06:00
04 Apr 06:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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Support line breached by NZD/USD. This price has been tested at least twice before.

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A $667,395.562 movement could be seen on ES within 48 hours following the release of Balance of Trade.

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