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We expect UB to trend downwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Unemployment Rate events in Euro Area, we expect UB to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect UB to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 30 Apr 09:00 if the released value is = 8.3%. A price movement of 162 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 Feb 10:00
02 Dec 10:00
30 Oct 10:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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