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We expect RTY to trend downwards today with a 83.33% chance.

Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect RTY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect RTY to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 30 Apr 11:45 if the released value is = 0%. A price movement of 5,515 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Jan 12:45
24 Oct 11:45
12 Sep 11:45
25 Jul 11:45
06 Jun 11:45
10 Apr 11:45
07 Mar 12:45
24 Jan 12:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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