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We expect NG to trend downwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Non Farm Payrolls events in United States, we expect NG to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect NG to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 02 Oct 12:30 if the released value is < 850K. A price movement of 20 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Sep 12:30
04 Oct 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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