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We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect a $830 movement on GBPUSD within 12 hours following the event release at 2023-01-18 23:50. We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 2023-01-18 23:50 if the released value is > ¥-1652.8B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Oct 23:50
18 May 23:50
19 Jan 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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