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We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Ivey PMI s.a events in Canada, we expect a 40 pip movement on GBPUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 2025-07-08 14:00. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 2025-07-08 14:00 if the released value is < 49.1 Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

06 May 14:00
08 Apr 14:00
07 Jan 15:00
06 Dec 15:00
06 Sep 14:00
07 Aug 14:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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