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We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards today with a 66.67% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United Kingdom, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 11 Nov 09:30 if the released value is < £-2.2B. A price movement of 161 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 May 08:30
12 Mar 09:30
11 Feb 09:30
10 Dec 09:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect PA to trend upwards today with a 66.67% chance.

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DASHEUR is quickly approaching 62.6600. We expect either a breakout through this line, or a rebound.

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