Based on the last 12 Fed Interest Rate Decision events in United States, we expect ES to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 72.73% chance of this. We expect ES to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 2025-07-30 18:00 if the released value is = 4.5%. A price movement of 291 pips is expected.
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
07 May 18:00 |
19 Mar 18:00 |
29 Jan 19:00 |
07 Nov 19:00 |
31 Jul 18:00 |
12 Jun 18:00 |
01 May 18:00 |
20 Mar 18:00 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
