Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect ES to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect ES to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 16 Sep 12:30 if the released value is < -0.8%. A price movement of 4,175 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
17 Aug 12:30 |
15 Jun 12:30 |
16 Mar 12:30 |
15 Jan 13:30 |
17 Nov 13:30 |
16 Sep 12:30 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
