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We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards today with a 83.33% chance.

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United Kingdom, we expect a 27 pip movement on AUDUSD within 12 hours following the event release at 2025-05-23 06:00. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 2025-05-23 06:00 if the released value is > 0.2%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

28 Mar 07:00
21 Feb 07:00
18 Oct 06:00
20 Sep 06:00
21 Jun 06:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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