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We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards today.

Based on the last 12 Non Farm Payrolls events in United States, we expect AUDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 05 Jul 12:30 if the released value is > 160K. A price movement of 30 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 May 12:30
05 Apr 12:30
01 Feb 13:30
02 Nov 12:30
07 Sep 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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