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We expect a $170 movement on EURUSD within 2 hours following the event release at 2025-07-16 23:50.

Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of EURUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > ¥353.9B. A price movement of 17 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Jun 23:50
22 Jan 23:50
17 Dec 23:50
17 Sep 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect KW to trend downwards today with a 83.33% chance.

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