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We expect a 0 pip movement on HG within 4 hours following the event release.

Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect a 0 pip movement on HG within 4 hours following the event release at 23 Oct 07:30 UTC. We expect HG to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 23 Oct 07:30 UTC if the released value is < 55.1 Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 May 07:30
23 Apr 07:30
24 Oct 07:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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