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There is a 80% chance of USDJPY trending downwards

We expect USDJPY to trend downwards for the next 12 hours. Based on these past United States Housing Starts news events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is > 1.54M. A price movement of 37 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Mar 12:30
19 Jan 13:30
16 Dec 13:30
21 Sep 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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