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There is a 66.67% chance of GBPUSD trending downwards

Based on past United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news events there is a 66.67% chance of GBPUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 5.0. A price movement of 81 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 May 12:30
17 Jan 13:30
18 Oct 12:30
20 Sep 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect GBPUSD to trend upwards today with a 66.67% chance.

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