Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect TN to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect TN to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 10 Dec 12:45 if the released value is = 0%. A price movement of 214 pips is expected.
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
29 Oct 12:45 |
04 Jun 11:45 |
30 Apr 11:45 |
12 Mar 12:45 |
12 Dec 12:45 |
24 Oct 11:45 |
12 Sep 11:45 |
25 Jul 11:45 |
06 Jun 11:45 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
