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There is a 66.67% chance of SI trending downwards

Based on past Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision news events there is a 66.67% chance of SI trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is = 0%. A price movement of 63 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 Sep 11:45
16 Jul 11:45
30 Apr 11:45
12 Mar 12:45
12 Sep 11:45
25 Jul 11:45
06 Jun 11:45
10 Apr 11:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $18,480.56 movement on PL within 4 hours following the release of Continuing Jobless Claims.

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We expect a $3.774 movement on FV within 48 hours following the event release at 29 Oct 13:00.

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