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We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards today with a 66.67% chance.

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United Kingdom, we expect a $180 movement on GBPUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 2025-08-22 06:00. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 2025-08-22 06:00 if the released value is > 0.5%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

28 Mar 07:00
21 Feb 07:00
18 Oct 06:00
20 Sep 06:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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