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We expect EURUSD to trend downwards today with a 77.78% chance.

Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence events in Japan, we expect a 51 pip movement on EURUSD within 12 hours following the event release at 2025-07-01 05:00. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 2025-07-01 05:00 if the released value is < 33.6 Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 May 05:00
09 Apr 05:00
29 Jan 05:00
08 Jan 05:00
02 Oct 05:00
29 Aug 05:00
01 Jul 05:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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