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We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards today with a 80% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Germany, we expect a $250 movement on AUDUSD within 12 hours following the event release at 2025-03-10 07:00. We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 2025-03-10 07:00 if the released value is > €21B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

07 Feb 07:00
09 Jan 07:00
09 Oct 06:00
08 Jul 06:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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