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We expect ES to trend upwards today with a 66.67% chance.

Based on past Italy Inflation Rate YoY Prel news events there is a 66.67% chance of ES trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 1.7%. A price movement of 27 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Feb 10:00
31 Jul 08:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $157651 movement on ES within the next 48 hours.

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